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KuPS vs Drita — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

KuPS
KuPS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Drita
Drita
P. Parzyszek 74'
A. Dabiqaj 80'
10/2/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Tammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KuPS45%
×Draw27%
Drita29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS
1.42
Drita
1.08

KuPS creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

KuPS
1.71
Drita
0.79

allows per match

KuPS
1.36
Drita
1.14

finishing

KuPS+0.00on par
Drita+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS ↓

Drita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KuPS or draw
71%
KuPS or Drita
73%
Draw or Drita
55%

Winning margin

KuPS wins by 2+
22%
Drita wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KuPS 1+ goals
76%
KuPS 2+ goals
41%
KuPS 3+ goals
17%
Drita 1+ goals
66%
Drita 2+ goals
29%
Drita 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KuPS (draw refunded)
61%
Drita (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Drita away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS attack 1.71 + Drita defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

Drita attack 0.79 + KuPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KuPS scores more
45%
level
27%
Drita scores more
29%

KuPS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
I. CisseKuPSKuPS · D
7.9

Match Events

29'
B. Sheji← V. Tusha
58'
P. Parzyszek← M. Toure
58'
C. Antwi← T. Hamalainen
58'
P. Golubickas← S. Pasanen
66'
M. Soumahoro← L. Balaj
70'
Doni Arifi
71'
J. Voutilainen← D. Arifi
74'
P. Parzyszek↳ J. Voutilainen
80'
A. Dabiqaj↳ B. Sheji
83'
Samuli Miettinen
83'
Petteri Pennanen
89'
A. Sadiku← P. Pennanen
89'
R. Broja← A. Ajzeraj
89'
K. Abazaj← A. Manaj
90+2'
Ibrahim Cissé

Possession

65%KuPS

Shots

6KuPS

Pass accuracy

53%KuPS

Statistics

KuPSDrita
Overview
65%Possession35%
6Total Shots12
0.64Expected Goals (xG)0.90
1Corners2
16Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots12
3On Target4
2Off Target6
1Blocked2
3Inside Box10
3Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
697Total Passes358
607Accurate Passes275
87%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
0.03Goals Prevented0.03
Discipline
16Fouls10
4Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: KuPS vs Drita

KuPS and Drita drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 2, 2025.

Goals: P. Parzyszek (74'), A. Dabiqaj (80').

KuPS controlled possession (65%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.