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KuPS Akatemia vs SalPa — Ykkönen 2026

KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
Preview
11:00
SalPa
SalPa
8/29/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageVare Areena
45%
KuPS Akatemia
model favours
45%24%32%

Both sides lean high-scoring (75% and 83% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

KuPS Akatemia45%
×Draw24%
SalPa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS Akatemia
1.70
SalPa
1.39

KuPS Akatemia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.88
SalPa
1.05

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.73
SalPa
1.52

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par
SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

SalPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw
68%
KuPS Akatemia or SalPa
76%
Draw or SalPa
55%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
24%
SalPa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
82%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
51%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
24%
SalPa 1+ goals
75%
SalPa 2+ goals
40%
SalPa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
59%
SalPa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

SalPa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.88 + SalPa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

SalPa attack 1.05 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more
45%
level
24%
SalPa scores more
32%

KuPS Akatemia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of SalPa’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • KuPS Akatemia score first in only 25% of matches
  • SalPa are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 75% of KuPS Akatemia’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 75% of SalPa’s matches
  • 27% of SalPa’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Akatemia
LDLDL
SalPa
LWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KuPS Akatemia face SalPa (Ykkönen)

Ykkönen returns with KuPS Akatemia hosting SalPa. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

KuPS Akatemia host SalPa at Vare Areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.