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KuPS Akatemia vs PeKa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PeKa
PeKa
9/11/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 13Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

KuPS Akatemia59%
×Draw20%
PeKa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS Akatemia
2.27
PeKa
1.31

KuPS Akatemia creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.55
PeKa
1.27

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.36
PeKa
3.00

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par
PeKa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

PeKa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw
79%
KuPS Akatemia or PeKa
80%
Draw or PeKa
41%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
37%
PeKa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
90%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
66%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
39%
PeKa 1+ goals
73%
PeKa 2+ goals
38%
PeKa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
73%
PeKa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

PeKa away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.55 + PeKa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

PeKa attack 1.27 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more
59%
level
20%
PeKa scores more
21%

KuPS Akatemia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KuPS Akatemia vs PeKa

KuPS Akatemia beat PeKa 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.