KuPS Akatemia 1–2 OTP: Result & Stats

KuPS Akatemia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

OTP

9/9/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 18Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

KuPS Akatemia59%

×Draw22%

OTP19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuPS AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchOTP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.97

KuPS Akatemia

1.90

OTP

0.97

KuPS Akatemia creates 96% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 42 away

2.00

creates per match

1.29

0.64

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia

2.00

OTP

1.29

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia

0.64

OTP

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

OTP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

OTP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw

81%

KuPS Akatemia or OTP

78%

Draw or OTP

41%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+

35%

OTP wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals

85%

KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals

56%

KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals

29%

OTP 1+ goals

62%

OTP 2+ goals

25%

OTP 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)

76%

OTP (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

OTP away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 2.00 + OTP defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

OTP attack 1.29 + KuPS Akatemia defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more

59%

level

22%

OTP scores more

19%

KuPS Akatemia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff