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KuPS Akatemia vs MP — Suomen Cup 2018

KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
MP
MP
5/28/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundVäre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KuPS Akatemia15%
×Draw15%
MP69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS Akatemia
1.43
MP
3.07

MP creates 115% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.33
MP
3.47

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia
2.67
MP
1.53

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par
MP+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

MP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw
31%
KuPS Akatemia or MP
85%
Draw or MP
85%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
6%
MP wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
76%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
42%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
17%
MP 1+ goals
95%
MP 2+ goals
80%
MP 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
18%
MP (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

MP away — creates 3.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.33 + MP defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

MP attack 3.47 + KuPS Akatemia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more
15%
level
15%
MP scores more
69%

MP at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KuPS Akatemia 1–4 MP

MP beat KuPS Akatemia 4-1 in Suomen Cup on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.