KuPS Akatemia 3–0 Kraft: Result & Stats

KuPS Akatemia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kraft

S. Elnour Joseph 87'

A. Tuunanen 67'

S. Daldum 63'

7/29/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 12Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

KuPS Akatemia62%

×Draw21%

Kraft18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuPS AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchKraft

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.02

KuPS Akatemia

2.09

Kraft

1.02

KuPS Akatemia creates 105% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 70 away

2.00

creates per match

1.40

0.64

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia

2.00

Kraft

1.40

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia

0.64

Kraft

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

Kraft+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

Kraft →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw

82%

KuPS Akatemia or Kraft

79%

Draw or Kraft

38%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+

38%

Kraft wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals

88%

KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals

62%

KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals

34%

Kraft 1+ goals

64%

Kraft 2+ goals

27%

Kraft 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)

78%

Kraft (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Kraft away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.19 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 2.00 + Kraft defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.09

Kraft attack 1.40 + KuPS Akatemia defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more

62%

level

21%

Kraft scores more

18%

KuPS Akatemia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. Saif Elnour

44'

63'

67'

70'

71'

A. Westerholm← K. Storfors

73'

A. Lärka← J. Åbonde

75'

A. Tuunanen

77'

N. Savander← M. Doot

79'

K. Kärkkäinen← T. Partanen

87'

S. Elnour Joseph

88'

J. Kivijärvi← A. Tuunanen

88'

A. Ollila← S. Elnour Joseph

88'

I. Savola← S. Koistinen

KuPS

Kraft

1

Maloney

4

Peth

3

▼

5

21

8

6

2

10

30

▼

13

12

14

22

▼

Partanen

2

▼

Koistinen

13

Tuomainen

8

Siltanen

18

▼

Doot

10

⚽

▼

Joseph

11

⚽

▼

Tuunanen

21

⚽

Daldum

24

Hukkanen

Manager: S. Vielma

77'▲N. Savander←▼M. Doot

79'▲K. Kärkkäinen←▼T. Partanen

88'▲J. Kivijärvi←▼A. Tuunanen

88'▲A. Ollila←▼S. Elnour Joseph

88'▲I. Savola←▼S. Koistinen

KuPS Akatemia substitutes

19Savander9Kärkkäinen15Kivijärvi16Ollila23Savola1Saarelainen7Metsäkylä

Manager: P. Sundlin

71'▲A. Westerholm←▼K. Storfors

73'▲A. Lärka←▼J. Åbonde

Kraft substitutes

18Westerholm22Lärka23Fadul31Norrgård