KuPS Akatemia 1–2 JJK: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

KuPS Akatemia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

JJK

L. Paasisalo 65'

A. Goljahanpoor 67'

K. Rintamaki 47'

4/10/2026

Ykkönen · Group StageVare Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KuPS Akatemia49%

×Draw22%

JJK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuPS AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchJJK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.44

KuPS Akatemia

1.93

JJK

1.44

KuPS Akatemia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 61 away

1.88

creates per match

1.16

1.73

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia

1.88

JJK

1.16

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia

1.73

JJK

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

JJK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

JJK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw

71%

KuPS Akatemia or JJK

78%

Draw or JJK

51%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+

28%

JJK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals

85%

KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals

57%

KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals

30%

JJK 1+ goals

76%

JJK 2+ goals

42%

JJK 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)

63%

JJK (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

JJK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.88 + JJK defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.93

JJK attack 1.16 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more

49%

level

22%

JJK scores more

29%

KuPS Akatemia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

42'

47'

62'

65'

66'

V. Lahtela← R. Tahkola

66'

E. Karkkainen← V. Mutlu

67'

A. Goljahanpoor

69'

T. Pahkala

69'

N. Liimatainen← M. Lundell

78'

J. Heimonen← S. Osso

81'

P. Hautakangas← L. Paasisalo

86'

S. Kantelinen← A. Leivonen

KuPS

JJK

1

Vetri

3

Akdogan

4

Kangasnie

5

▼

Osso

6

Ciriaco

8

Pahkala

9

⚽

Goljahanp

10

Dunyin

26

▼

Lundell

35

Aaltonen

72

⚽

12

3

4

5

▼

Tahkola

7

⚽

▼

Paasisalo

8

Kivijarvi

10

▼

13

19

23

24

▼

Leivonen

Manager: Juho Neuvonen

66'▲V. Lahtela←▼R. Tahkola

66'▲E. Karkkainen←▼V. Mutlu

81'▲P. Hautakangas←▼L. Paasisalo

86'▲S. Kantelinen←▼A. Leivonen

KuPS Akatemia substitutes

1Kauppinen14Hautakangas18Lahtela20Karkkainen22Ronkainen25Haarma28Laine30Kantelinen

Manager: Brian Page

69'▲N. Liimatainen←▼M. Lundell

78'▲J. Heimonen←▼S. Osso

JJK substitutes

30Oikarinen11Sainila17Imonioro18Tuppurainen23Maunuksela24Liimatainen27Traore29Viren52Heimonen