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KuPS Akatemia vs GBK — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
GBK
GBK
6/28/2023Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 9Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

KuPS Akatemia58%
×Draw21%
GBK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS Akatemia
2.04
GBK
1.13

KuPS Akatemia creates 81% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 87 away

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia
2.00
GBK
1.62

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia
0.64
GBK
2.08

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par
GBK+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

GBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw
79%
KuPS Akatemia or GBK
79%
Draw or GBK
42%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
35%
GBK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
87%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
60%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
33%
GBK 1+ goals
68%
GBK 2+ goals
31%
GBK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
74%
GBK (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

GBK away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 2.00 + GBK defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

GBK attack 1.62 + KuPS Akatemia defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more
58%
level
21%
GBK scores more
21%

KuPS Akatemia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: KuPS Akatemia 6–0 GBK

KuPS Akatemia beat GBK 6-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on June 28, 2023.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.