KuPS Akatemia 1–2 FC jazz: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

KuPS Akatemia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC jazz

Unknown 65' (OG)

J. Lakkamaki 61', 44'

5/9/2026

Ykkönen · Group StageVare Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KuPS Akatemia43%

×Draw22%

FC jazz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuPS AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchFC jazz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.69

KuPS Akatemia

1.88

FC jazz

1.69

KuPS Akatemia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

1.88

creates per match

1.66

1.73

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia

1.88

FC jazz

1.66

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia

1.73

FC jazz

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

FC jazz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw

65%

KuPS Akatemia or FC jazz

78%

Draw or FC jazz

57%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+

23%

FC jazz wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals

85%

KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals

56%

KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals

29%

FC jazz 1+ goals

82%

FC jazz 2+ goals

50%

FC jazz 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)

55%

FC jazz (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

FC jazz away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.89 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.88 + FC jazz defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC jazz attack 1.66 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more

43%

level

22%

FC jazz scores more

35%

KuPS Akatemia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

44'

57'

61'

61'

D. Huttunen← L. Paasisalo

61'

J. Lakkamaki

65'

Own goal

73'

N. Aydin← A. Luhtanen

74'

L. Nuorela

76'

P. Hautakangas← E. Tanninen

85'

E. Lamberg← E. Kaipiainen

86'

E. Karkkainen← R. Tikkanen

KuPS

FC

1

Kangasaho

2

Lemio

3

Nuorela

4

▼

Luhtanen

5

⚽2

Lakkamaki

8

▼

12

16

17

19

29

1

3

▼

Tikkanen

6

▼

Balde

7

▼

Paasisalo

8

Kivijarvi

13

Tuomainen

17

▼

21

23

26

24

Manager: Juho Neuvonen

61'▲R. Tahkola←▼O. Balde

61'▲D. Huttunen←▼L. Paasisalo

76'▲P. Hautakangas←▼E. Tanninen

86'▲E. Karkkainen←▼R. Tikkanen

KuPS Akatemia substitutes

4Hukkanen5Tahkola9Huttunen14Hautakangas20Karkkainen25Haarma30Kantelinen11Nguyen12Aimola

73'▲N. Aydin←▼A. Luhtanen

85'▲E. Lamberg←▼E. Kaipiainen

FC jazz substitutes

6Aydin9Lamberg11Eranka20Tuominen30Majaluoma26Takala