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KuPS Akatemia vs Atlantis — Ykkönen 2026

KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Atlantis
Atlantis
8/31/2024YkkönenYkkönen · Round 22Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

KuPS Akatemia43%
×Draw22%
Atlantis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KuPS Akatemia
1.94
Atlantis
1.74

KuPS Akatemia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

creates per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.88
Atlantis
1.75

allows per match

KuPS Akatemia
1.73
Atlantis
2.00

finishing

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par
Atlantis+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KuPS Akatemia ↓

Atlantis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

KuPS Akatemia or draw
65%
KuPS Akatemia or Atlantis
78%
Draw or Atlantis
57%

Winning margin

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
24%
Atlantis wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
86%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
58%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
30%
Atlantis 1+ goals
82%
Atlantis 2+ goals
52%
Atlantis 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
55%
Atlantis (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KuPS Akatemia at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Atlantis away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.88 + Atlantis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Atlantis attack 1.75 + KuPS Akatemia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KuPS Akatemia scores more
43%
level
22%
Atlantis scores more
35%

KuPS Akatemia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KuPS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: KuPS Akatemia 2–5 Atlantis

Atlantis beat KuPS Akatemia 5-2 in Ykkönen on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.