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Kupiškis vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Kupiškis
Kupiškis
FT
0 – 3
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
8/2/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 18Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kupiškis28%
×Draw23%
Nevėžis49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kupiškis
1.29
Nevėžis
1.79

Nevėžis creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Kupiškis
1.29
Nevėžis
1.57

allows per match

Kupiškis
2.00
Nevėžis
1.28

finishing

Kupiškis+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kupiškis ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kupiškis or draw
51%
Kupiškis or Nevėžis
77%
Draw or Nevėžis
72%

Winning margin

Kupiškis wins by 2+
12%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Kupiškis 1+ goals
72%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
37%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
14%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
83%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
53%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kupiškis (draw refunded)
36%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kupiškis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kupiškis attack 1.29 + Nevėžis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nevėžis attack 1.57 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kupiškis scores more
28%
level
23%
Nevėžis scores more
49%

Nevėžis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Kupiškis 0–3 Nevėžis

Nevėžis beat Kupiškis 3-0 in 1 Lyga on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis).