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Kupiškis vs Minija — 1 Lyga 2026

Kupiškis
Kupiškis
FT
1 – 4
Minija
Minija
10/5/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 27Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kupiškis36%
×Draw23%
Minija41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kupiškis
1.54
Minija
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kupiškis
1.29
Minija
1.33

allows per match

Kupiškis
2.00
Minija
1.78

finishing

Kupiškis+0.00on par
Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kupiškis ↓

Minija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kupiškis or draw
59%
Kupiškis or Minija
77%
Draw or Minija
64%

Winning margin

Kupiškis wins by 2+
17%
Minija wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kupiškis 1+ goals
79%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
45%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
20%
Minija 1+ goals
81%
Minija 2+ goals
50%
Minija 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kupiškis (draw refunded)
46%
Minija (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kupiškis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Minija away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kupiškis attack 1.29 + Minija defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Minija attack 1.33 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kupiškis scores more
36%
level
23%
Minija scores more
41%

Minija at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kupiškis vs Minija

Minija beat Kupiškis 4-1 in 1 Lyga on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis).