Kupiškis 0–0 Hegelmann Litauen: Result & Stats

Kupiškis

FT

0 – 0

Hegelmann Litauen

9/28/2019

1 Lyga · Round 26Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kupiškis28%

×Draw24%

Hegelmann Litauen48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KupiškisExpected goals in this matchHegelmann Litauen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.71

Kupiškis

1.25

Hegelmann Litauen

1.71

Hegelmann Litauen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

1.29

creates per match

1.43

2.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Kupiškis

1.29

Hegelmann Litauen

1.43

allows per match

Kupiškis

2.00

Hegelmann Litauen

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kupiškis+0.00on par

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kupiškis ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kupiškis or draw

52%

Kupiškis or Hegelmann Litauen

76%

Draw or Hegelmann Litauen

72%

Winning margin

Kupiškis wins by 2+

12%

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Kupiškis 1+ goals

71%

Kupiškis 2+ goals

36%

Kupiškis 3+ goals

13%

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

82%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

51%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kupiškis (draw refunded)

37%

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kupiškis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kupiškis attack 1.29 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.43 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kupiškis scores more

28%

level

24%

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

48%

Hegelmann Litauen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff