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Kupiškis vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Kupiškis
Kupiškis
FT
3 – 1
BFA
BFA
5/15/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kupiškis39%
×Draw23%
BFA39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kupiškis
1.67
BFA
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 104 away

creates per match

Kupiškis
1.29
BFA
1.34

allows per match

Kupiškis
2.00
BFA
2.05

finishing

Kupiškis+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kupiškis ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kupiškis or draw
61%
Kupiškis or BFA
77%
Draw or BFA
61%

Winning margin

Kupiškis wins by 2+
19%
BFA wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kupiškis 1+ goals
81%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
50%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
23%
BFA 1+ goals
81%
BFA 2+ goals
50%
BFA 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kupiškis (draw refunded)
50%
BFA (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kupiškis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kupiškis attack 1.29 + BFA defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.67

BFA attack 1.34 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kupiškis scores more
39%
level
23%
BFA scores more
39%

Kupiškis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kupiškis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Kupiškis 3–1 BFA

Kupiškis beat BFA 3-1 in 1 Lyga on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis).