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Kuopion Elo vs Vaajakoski — Suomen Cup 2018

Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vaajakoski
Vaajakoski
4/27/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundVäre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kuopion Elo17%
×Draw16%
Vaajakoski67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuopion Elo
1.50
Vaajakoski
3.00

Vaajakoski creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kuopion Elo
1.00
Vaajakoski
1.00

allows per match

Kuopion Elo
5.00
Vaajakoski
2.00

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par
Vaajakoski+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

Vaajakoski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw
33%
Kuopion Elo or Vaajakoski
84%
Draw or Vaajakoski
83%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
7%
Vaajakoski wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
78%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
44%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
19%
Vaajakoski 1+ goals
95%
Vaajakoski 2+ goals
79%
Vaajakoski 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
20%
Vaajakoski (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

Vaajakoski away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 1.00 + Vaajakoski defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vaajakoski attack 1.00 + Kuopion Elo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more
17%
level
16%
Vaajakoski scores more
67%

Vaajakoski at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vaajakoski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuopion Elo vs Vaajakoski

Kuopion Elo beat Vaajakoski 3-1 in Suomen Cup on April 27, 2023.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.