Kuopion Elo 1–5 PEPO: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Kuopion Elo

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

PEPO

5/18/2023

Suomen Cup · 4th RoundVäre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuopion Elo8%

×Draw10%

PEPO83%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuopion EloExpected goals in this matchPEPO

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

4.21

Kuopion Elo

1.33

PEPO

4.21

PEPO creates 217% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

3.42

5.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kuopion Elo

1.00

PEPO

3.42

allows per match

Kuopion Elo

5.00

PEPO

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

PEPO →

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–36%

0–46%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw

17%

Kuopion Elo or PEPO

90%

Draw or PEPO

92%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+

PEPO wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals

74%

Kuopion Elo 2+ goals

38%

Kuopion Elo 3+ goals

15%

PEPO 1+ goals

98%

PEPO 2+ goals

91%

PEPO 3+ goals

76%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)

PEPO (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

PEPO away — creates 3.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 1.00 + PEPO defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

PEPO attack 3.42 + Kuopion Elo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more

level

10%

PEPO scores more

83%

PEPO at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff