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Kuopion Elo vs Lahti — Suomen Cup 2018

Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Lahti
Lahti
4/13/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundVäre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuopion Elo7%
×Draw10%
Lahti83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuopion Elo
1.11
Lahti
3.83

Lahti creates 245% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kuopion Elo
1.00
Lahti
2.65

allows per match

Kuopion Elo
5.00
Lahti
1.22

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw
17%
Kuopion Elo or Lahti
90%
Draw or Lahti
93%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
2%
Lahti wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
67%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
30%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
10%
Lahti 1+ goals
98%
Lahti 2+ goals
88%
Lahti 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
8%
Lahti (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 1.00 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Lahti attack 2.65 + Kuopion Elo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more
7%
level
10%
Lahti scores more
83%

Lahti at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuopion Elo vs Lahti

Lahti beat Kuopion Elo 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.