Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kuopion Elo vs KajHa — Suomen Cup 2018

Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
FT
1 – 3
KajHa
KajHa
9/9/2017Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundLitmasen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kuopion Elo21%
×Draw16%
KajHa63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuopion Elo
1.83
KajHa
3.17

KajHa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kuopion Elo
1.00
KajHa
1.33

allows per match

Kuopion Elo
5.00
KajHa
2.67

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par
KajHa+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

KajHa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw
37%
Kuopion Elo or KajHa
84%
Draw or KajHa
79%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
10%
KajHa wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
84%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
54%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
28%
KajHa 1+ goals
96%
KajHa 2+ goals
82%
KajHa 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
25%
KajHa (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

KajHa away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 1.00 + KajHa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

KajHa attack 1.33 + Kuopion Elo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more
21%
level
16%
KajHa scores more
63%

KajHa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "KajHa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuopion Elo vs KajHa

KajHa beat Kuopion Elo 3-1 in Suomen Cup on September 9, 2017.

The match was played at Litmasen tekonurmi in Kuopio.