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Kunshan vs Zibo Cuju — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
11/11/2022League OneLeague One · Round 29Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kunshan56%
×Draw24%
Zibo Cuju20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.73
Zibo Cuju
0.92

Kunshan creates 88% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
Zibo Cuju
1.06

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
Zibo Cuju
1.71

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Zibo Cuju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
80%
Kunshan or Zibo Cuju
76%
Draw or Zibo Cuju
44%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
31%
Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
82%
Kunshan 2+ goals
52%
Kunshan 3+ goals
25%
Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
60%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
23%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
74%
Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kunshan scores more
56%
level
24%
Zibo Cuju scores more
20%

Kunshan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Kunshan 4–1 Zibo Cuju

Kunshan beat Zibo Cuju 4-1 in League One on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.