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Kunshan vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
7/18/2022League OneLeague One · Round 9Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kunshan67%
×Draw21%
Xinjiang Tianshan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.96
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.71

Kunshan creates 176% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
87%
Kunshan or Xinjiang Tianshan
79%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
33%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
41%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
86%
Kunshan 2+ goals
58%
Kunshan 3+ goals
31%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
51%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
16%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
84%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.96

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kunshan scores more
67%
level
21%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
13%

Kunshan at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Kunshan 3–1 Xinjiang Tianshan

Kunshan beat Xinjiang Tianshan 3-1 in League One on July 18, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.