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Kunshan vs Tianjin Teda — FA Cup 2019

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
11/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundDalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kunshan40%
×Draw23%
Tianjin Teda37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.73
Tianjin Teda
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kunshan
2.00
Tianjin Teda
1.09

allows per match

Kunshan
2.25
Tianjin Teda
1.45

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
63%
Kunshan or Tianjin Teda
77%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
60%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
21%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
82%
Kunshan 2+ goals
52%
Kunshan 3+ goals
25%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
81%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
50%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
52%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 2.00 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tianjin Teda attack 1.09 + Kunshan defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kunshan scores more
40%
level
23%
Tianjin Teda scores more
37%

Kunshan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kunshan vs Tianjin Teda

Tianjin Teda beat Kunshan 4-0 in FA Cup on November 17, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.