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Kunshan vs Shenyang Urban — FA Cup 2019

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
8/21/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundTangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kunshan44%
×Draw21%
Shenyang Urban34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
2.00
Shenyang Urban
1.75

Kunshan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kunshan
2.00
Shenyang Urban
1.25

allows per match

Kunshan
2.25
Shenyang Urban
2.00

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Shenyang Urban →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
66%
Kunshan or Shenyang Urban
79%
Draw or Shenyang Urban
56%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
25%
Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
86%
Kunshan 2+ goals
59%
Kunshan 3+ goals
32%
Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
83%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
52%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
56%
Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 2.00 + Shenyang Urban defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Shenyang Urban attack 1.25 + Kunshan defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kunshan scores more
44%
level
21%
Shenyang Urban scores more
34%

Kunshan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kunshan vs Shenyang Urban

Kunshan beat Shenyang Urban 4-2 in FA Cup on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3 in Tangshan.