Kunshan 2–0 Shanghai Jiading: Result & Stats

Kunshan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shanghai Jiading

9/8/2022

League One · Round 19Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kunshan60%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Jiading15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KunshanExpected goals in this matchShanghai Jiading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.68

Kunshan

1.64

Shanghai Jiading

0.68

Kunshan creates 141% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 62 away

1.76

creates per match

0.58

0.78

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Kunshan

1.76

Shanghai Jiading

0.58

allows per match

Kunshan

0.78

Shanghai Jiading

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Shanghai Jiading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw

85%

Kunshan or Shanghai Jiading

76%

Draw or Shanghai Jiading

40%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+

33%

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals

81%

Kunshan 2+ goals

49%

Kunshan 3+ goals

23%

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals

49%

Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals

15%

Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)

80%

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kunshan scores more

60%

level

24%

Shanghai Jiading scores more

15%

Kunshan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff