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Kunshan vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
9/4/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 9Dalian Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kunshan44%
×Draw27%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.41
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.10

Kunshan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 57 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
71%
Kunshan or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
73%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
56%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
21%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
76%
Kunshan 2+ goals
41%
Kunshan 3+ goals
17%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
67%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
30%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
60%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.41

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kunshan scores more
44%
level
27%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
29%

Kunshan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Kunshan 1–1 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Kunshan and Shaanxi Changan Athletic drew 1-1 in League One on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Center in Dalian.