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Kunshan vs Jiangxi Liansheng — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
5/15/2021League OneLeague One · Round 5Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kunshan57%
×Draw24%
Jiangxi Liansheng19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.68
Jiangxi Liansheng
0.86

Kunshan creates 95% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 73 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
Jiangxi Liansheng
0.95

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.59

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
81%
Kunshan or Jiangxi Liansheng
76%
Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng
43%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
31%
Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
81%
Kunshan 2+ goals
50%
Kunshan 3+ goals
24%
Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
58%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
21%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
75%
Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.95 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kunshan scores more
57%
level
24%
Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
19%

Kunshan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kunshan vs Jiangxi Liansheng

Kunshan beat Jiangxi Liansheng 6-0 in League One on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.