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Kunshan vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
9/20/2022League OneLeague One · Round 22Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kunshan53%
×Draw26%
Guangxi Baoyun21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.50
Guangxi Baoyun
0.82

Kunshan creates 83% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 63 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
Guangxi Baoyun
0.86

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
Guangxi Baoyun
1.25

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
79%
Kunshan or Guangxi Baoyun
74%
Draw or Guangxi Baoyun
47%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
27%
Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
78%
Kunshan 2+ goals
44%
Kunshan 3+ goals
19%
Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
56%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
20%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
72%
Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kunshan scores more
53%
level
26%
Guangxi Baoyun scores more
21%

Kunshan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kunshan vs Guangxi Baoyun

Kunshan beat Guangxi Baoyun 5-1 in League One on September 20, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.