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Kundl vs St. Johann in Tirol — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Kundl
Kundl
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
10/19/2024Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 11Achenstadion Kundl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kundl43%
×Draw22%
St. Johann in Tirol35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kundl
1.85
St. Johann in Tirol
1.67

Kundl creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 85 away

creates per match

Kundl
2.08
St. Johann in Tirol
1.89

allows per match

Kundl
1.46
St. Johann in Tirol
1.61

finishing

Kundl+0.00on par
St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kundl ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kundl or draw
65%
Kundl or St. Johann in Tirol
78%
Draw or St. Johann in Tirol
57%

Winning margin

Kundl wins by 2+
23%
St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kundl 1+ goals
84%
Kundl 2+ goals
55%
Kundl 3+ goals
28%
St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
81%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
50%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kundl (draw refunded)
55%
St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kundl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kundl attack 2.08 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.85

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Kundl defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kundl scores more
43%
level
22%
St. Johann in Tirol scores more
35%

Kundl at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kundl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Kundl 1–3 St. Johann in Tirol

St. Johann in Tirol beat Kundl 3-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Achenstadion Kundl in Kundl.