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Kundl vs Kirchbichl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Kundl
Kundl
FT
3 – 0
Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
5/25/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 26Achenstadion Kundl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kundl50%
×Draw21%
Kirchbichl29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kundl
2.13
Kirchbichl
1.61

Kundl creates 32% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kundl
2.08
Kirchbichl
1.77

allows per match

Kundl
1.46
Kirchbichl
2.18

finishing

Kundl+0.00on par
Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kundl ↓

Kirchbichl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kundl or draw
71%
Kundl or Kirchbichl
79%
Draw or Kirchbichl
50%

Winning margin

Kundl wins by 2+
29%
Kirchbichl wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kundl 1+ goals
88%
Kundl 2+ goals
63%
Kundl 3+ goals
35%
Kirchbichl 1+ goals
80%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
48%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kundl (draw refunded)
63%
Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kundl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

Kirchbichl away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kundl attack 2.08 + Kirchbichl defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kirchbichl attack 1.77 + Kundl defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kundl scores more
50%
level
21%
Kirchbichl scores more
29%

Kundl at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kundl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Kundl 3–0 Kirchbichl

Kundl beat Kirchbichl 3-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Achenstadion Kundl in Kundl.