Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kun Khalifat FC vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kwara United
Kwara United
1/29/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kun Khalifat FC55%
×Draw26%
Kwara United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kun Khalifat FC
1.48
Kwara United
0.73

Kun Khalifat FC creates 103% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

creates per match

Kun Khalifat FC
1.42
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Kun Khalifat FC
0.89
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kun Khalifat FC ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kun Khalifat FC or draw
82%
Kun Khalifat FC or Kwara United
74%
Draw or Kwara United
45%

Winning margin

Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
28%
Kwara United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
77%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
43%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
19%
Kwara United 1+ goals
52%
Kwara United 2+ goals
17%
Kwara United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
75%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kun Khalifat FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kun Khalifat FC attack 1.42 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kun Khalifat FC scores more
55%
level
26%
Kwara United scores more
18%

Kun Khalifat FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kun Khalifat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kun Khalifat FC vs Kwara United

Kun Khalifat FC beat Kwara United 1-0 in NPFL on January 29, 2026.