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Kun Khalifat FC vs Ikorodu City — NPFL 2019

Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City
3/22/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kun Khalifat FC53%
×Draw27%
Ikorodu City20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kun Khalifat FC
1.46
Ikorodu City
0.79

Kun Khalifat FC creates 85% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kun Khalifat FC
1.42
Ikorodu City
0.68

allows per match

Kun Khalifat FC
0.89
Ikorodu City
1.50

finishing

Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par
Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kun Khalifat FC ↓

Ikorodu City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kun Khalifat FC or draw
80%
Kun Khalifat FC or Ikorodu City
73%
Draw or Ikorodu City
47%

Winning margin

Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
27%
Ikorodu City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
77%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
43%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
18%
Ikorodu City 1+ goals
55%
Ikorodu City 2+ goals
19%
Ikorodu City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
72%
Ikorodu City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kun Khalifat FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kun Khalifat FC attack 1.42 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kun Khalifat FC scores more
53%
level
27%
Ikorodu City scores more
20%

Kun Khalifat FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kun Khalifat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kun Khalifat FC vs Ikorodu City

Kun Khalifat FC and Ikorodu City drew 2-2 in NPFL on March 22, 2026.