Kun Khalifat FC 1–1 Bendel Insurance

Kun Khalifat FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bendel Insurance

10/26/2025

NPFL · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kun Khalifat FC49%

×Draw29%

Bendel Insurance22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kun Khalifat FCExpected goals in this matchBendel Insurance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.75

Kun Khalifat FC

1.27

Bendel Insurance

0.75

Kun Khalifat FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

1.42

creates per match

0.61

0.89

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Kun Khalifat FC

1.42

Bendel Insurance

0.61

allows per match

Kun Khalifat FC

0.89

Bendel Insurance

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kun Khalifat FC ↓

Bendel Insurance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kun Khalifat FC or draw

78%

Kun Khalifat FC or Bendel Insurance

71%

Draw or Bendel Insurance

51%

Winning margin

Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+

22%

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals

72%

Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals

36%

Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals

14%

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals

53%

Bendel Insurance 2+ goals

17%

Bendel Insurance 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)

69%

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kun Khalifat FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kun Khalifat FC attack 1.42 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kun Khalifat FC scores more

49%

level

29%

Bendel Insurance scores more

22%

Kun Khalifat FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kun Khalifat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff