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Kun Khalifat FC vs Abia Warriors — NPFL 2019

Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
12/14/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kun Khalifat FC53%
×Draw26%
Abia Warriors21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kun Khalifat FC
1.48
Abia Warriors
0.81

Kun Khalifat FC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

creates per match

Kun Khalifat FC
1.42
Abia Warriors
0.73

allows per match

Kun Khalifat FC
0.89
Abia Warriors
1.55

finishing

Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par
Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kun Khalifat FC ↓

Abia Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kun Khalifat FC or draw
79%
Kun Khalifat FC or Abia Warriors
74%
Draw or Abia Warriors
47%

Winning margin

Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
27%
Abia Warriors wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
77%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
43%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
19%
Abia Warriors 1+ goals
56%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
19%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
72%
Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kun Khalifat FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kun Khalifat FC attack 1.42 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kun Khalifat FC scores more
53%
level
26%
Abia Warriors scores more
21%

Kun Khalifat FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kun Khalifat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kun Khalifat FC 0–1 Abia Warriors

Abia Warriors beat Kun Khalifat FC 1-0 in NPFL on December 14, 2025.