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Kumla vs Yxhult — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Kumla
Kumla
FT
3 – 0
Yxhult
Yxhult
10/30/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 1Kumla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kumla44%
×Draw23%
Yxhult34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kumla
1.80
Yxhult
1.56

Kumla creates 15% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 40 away

creates per match

Kumla
1.52
Yxhult
1.60

allows per match

Kumla
1.52
Yxhult
2.08

finishing

Kumla+0.00on par
Yxhult+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kumla ↓

Yxhult →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kumla or draw
66%
Kumla or Yxhult
77%
Draw or Yxhult
56%

Winning margin

Kumla wins by 2+
23%
Yxhult wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kumla 1+ goals
83%
Kumla 2+ goals
54%
Kumla 3+ goals
27%
Yxhult 1+ goals
79%
Yxhult 2+ goals
46%
Yxhult 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kumla (draw refunded)
56%
Yxhult (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kumla at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Yxhult away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kumla attack 1.52 + Yxhult defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.80

Yxhult attack 1.60 + Kumla defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kumla scores more
44%
level
23%
Yxhult scores more
34%

Kumla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kumla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Kumla 3–0 Yxhult

Kumla beat Yxhult 3-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Kumla IP in Kumla.