Kumla 4–1 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK: Result & Stats

Kumla

FT

4 – 1

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

9/26/2020

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 10Kumla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kumla66%

×Draw16%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KumlaExpected goals in this matchTrosa-Vagnhärad SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.02

1.56

Kumla

3.02

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.56

Kumla creates 94% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 34 away

3.29

creates per match

1.26

1.86

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Kumla

3.29

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.26

allows per match

Kumla

1.86

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kumla+0.00on par

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kumla ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Kumla or draw

82%

Kumla or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

84%

Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

34%

Winning margin

Kumla wins by 2+

46%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kumla 1+ goals

95%

Kumla 2+ goals

80%

Kumla 3+ goals

57%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals

79%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals

46%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kumla (draw refunded)

79%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kumla at home — creates 3.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kumla attack 3.29 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 3.02

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Kumla defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kumla scores more

66%

level

16%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more

18%

Kumla at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kumla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff