Kumla 1–1 Tidaholms GoIF: Result & Stats

Kumla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tidaholms GoIF

4/12/2025

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 3Kumla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kumla57%

×Draw21%

Tidaholms GoIF22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KumlaExpected goals in this matchTidaholms GoIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.19

Kumla

2.03

Tidaholms GoIF

1.19

Kumla creates 71% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 13 away

1.52

creates per match

0.85

1.52

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Kumla

1.52

Tidaholms GoIF

0.85

allows per match

Kumla

1.52

Tidaholms GoIF

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kumla+0.00on par

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kumla ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kumla or draw

78%

Kumla or Tidaholms GoIF

79%

Draw or Tidaholms GoIF

43%

Winning margin

Kumla wins by 2+

34%

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kumla 1+ goals

87%

Kumla 2+ goals

60%

Kumla 3+ goals

33%

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals

70%

Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals

33%

Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kumla (draw refunded)

72%

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kumla at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kumla attack 1.52 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.03

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + Kumla defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kumla scores more

57%

level

21%

Tidaholms GoIF scores more

22%

Kumla at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kumla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff