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Kumba vs Tonnerre — Elite Two 2020

Kumba
Kumba
FT
2 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
2/25/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kumba44%
×Draw27%
Tonnerre29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kumba
1.37
Tonnerre
1.07

Kumba creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 42 away

creates per match

Kumba
1.38
Tonnerre
1.02

allows per match

Kumba
1.13
Tonnerre
1.36

finishing

Kumba+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kumba ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kumba or draw
71%
Kumba or Tonnerre
73%
Draw or Tonnerre
56%

Winning margin

Kumba wins by 2+
21%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kumba 1+ goals
75%
Kumba 2+ goals
40%
Kumba 3+ goals
16%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
66%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
29%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kumba (draw refunded)
60%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kumba at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kumba attack 1.38 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + Kumba defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kumba scores more
44%
level
27%
Tonnerre scores more
29%

Kumba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kumba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Kumba 2–1 Tonnerre

Kumba beat Tonnerre 2-1 in Elite Two on February 25, 2026.