Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kultsu vs Union Plaani — Suomen Cup 2018

Kultsu
Kultsu
FT
4 – 2
Union Plaani
Union Plaani
3/22/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kultsu15%
×Draw14%
Union Plaani71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kultsu
1.83
Union Plaani
3.83

Union Plaani creates 109% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kultsu
1.67
Union Plaani
3.00

allows per match

Kultsu
4.67
Union Plaani
2.00

finishing

Kultsu+0.00on par
Union Plaani+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kultsu ↓

Union Plaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Kultsu or draw
29%
Kultsu or Union Plaani
86%
Draw or Union Plaani
85%

Winning margin

Kultsu wins by 2+
7%
Union Plaani wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Kultsu 1+ goals
84%
Kultsu 2+ goals
54%
Kultsu 3+ goals
28%
Union Plaani 1+ goals
98%
Union Plaani 2+ goals
88%
Union Plaani 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Kultsu (draw refunded)
18%
Union Plaani (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kultsu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Union Plaani away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kultsu attack 1.67 + Union Plaani defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Union Plaani attack 3.00 + Kultsu defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kultsu scores more
15%
level
14%
Union Plaani scores more
71%

Union Plaani at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Union Plaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Kultsu 4–2 Union Plaani

Kultsu beat Union Plaani 4-2 in Suomen Cup on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.