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Kultsu vs MP — Suomen Cup 2018

Kultsu
Kultsu
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
MP
MP
4/26/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundJoutseno Ravirata Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kultsu11%
×Draw12%
MP77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kultsu
1.60
MP
4.07

MP creates 154% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kultsu
1.67
MP
3.47

allows per match

Kultsu
4.67
MP
1.53

finishing

Kultsu+0.00on par
MP+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kultsu ↓

MP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Kultsu or draw
23%
Kultsu or MP
88%
Draw or MP
89%

Winning margin

Kultsu wins by 2+
4%
MP wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Kultsu 1+ goals
80%
Kultsu 2+ goals
47%
Kultsu 3+ goals
22%
MP 1+ goals
98%
MP 2+ goals
90%
MP 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Kultsu (draw refunded)
12%
MP (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kultsu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

MP away — creates 3.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kultsu attack 1.67 + MP defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

MP attack 3.47 + Kultsu defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Kultsu scores more
11%
level
12%
MP scores more
77%

MP at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kultsu vs MP

MP beat Kultsu 5-1 in Suomen Cup on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Joutseno Ravirata Tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.