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Kultsu vs Lahti — Suomen Cup 2018

Kultsu
Kultsu
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 1
Lahti
Lahti
5/8/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundJoutseno Ravirata Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kultsu11%
×Draw13%
Lahti76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kultsu
1.44
Lahti
3.66

Lahti creates 154% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kultsu
1.67
Lahti
2.65

allows per match

Kultsu
4.67
Lahti
1.22

finishing

Kultsu+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kultsu ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Kultsu or draw
24%
Kultsu or Lahti
87%
Draw or Lahti
89%

Winning margin

Kultsu wins by 2+
4%
Lahti wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Kultsu 1+ goals
76%
Kultsu 2+ goals
42%
Kultsu 3+ goals
18%
Lahti 1+ goals
97%
Lahti 2+ goals
87%
Lahti 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Kultsu (draw refunded)
13%
Lahti (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kultsu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kultsu attack 1.67 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lahti attack 2.65 + Kultsu defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Kultsu scores more
11%
level
13%
Lahti scores more
76%

Lahti at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kultsu vs Lahti

Lahti beat Kultsu 7-0 in Suomen Cup on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Joutseno Ravirata Tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.