Kuktosh 1–0 Lokomotive Pamir: Result & Stats

Kuktosh

FT

1 – 0

Lokomotive Pamir

6/17/2020

Vysshaya Liga · Round 5Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kuktosh44%

×Draw30%

Lokomotive Pamir26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuktoshExpected goals in this matchLokomotive Pamir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.85

Kuktosh

1.19

Lokomotive Pamir

0.85

Kuktosh creates 40% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 9 away

1.39

creates per match

0.11

1.58

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kuktosh

1.39

Lokomotive Pamir

0.11

allows per match

Kuktosh

1.58

Lokomotive Pamir

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par

Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

Lokomotive Pamir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw

74%

Kuktosh or Lokomotive Pamir

70%

Draw or Lokomotive Pamir

56%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+

19%

Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals

70%

Kuktosh 2+ goals

33%

Kuktosh 3+ goals

12%

Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals

57%

Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals

21%

Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)

63%

Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 59 matches

Lokomotive Pamir away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.39 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Lokomotive Pamir attack 0.11 + Kuktosh defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kuktosh scores more

44%

level

30%

Lokomotive Pamir scores more

26%

Kuktosh at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kuktosh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff