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Kuktosh vs Dushanbe-83 — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Kuktosh
Kuktosh
FT
2 – 2
Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
8/23/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 13Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kuktosh54%
×Draw22%
Dushanbe-8323%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuktosh
1.90
Dushanbe-83
1.16

Kuktosh creates 64% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kuktosh
1.39
Dushanbe-83
0.73

allows per match

Kuktosh
1.58
Dushanbe-83
2.41

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par
Dushanbe-83+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

Dushanbe-83 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw
77%
Kuktosh or Dushanbe-83
78%
Draw or Dushanbe-83
46%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+
31%
Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals
85%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
56%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
29%
Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
69%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
32%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)
70%
Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 59 matches

Dushanbe-83 away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.39 + Dushanbe-83 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dushanbe-83 attack 0.73 + Kuktosh defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kuktosh scores more
54%
level
22%
Dushanbe-83 scores more
23%

Kuktosh at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kuktosh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Kuktosh 2–2 Dushanbe-83

Kuktosh and Dushanbe-83 drew 2-2 in Vysshaya Liga on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Rudaki.