Kufstein 2–1 Wolfurt: Result & Stats

Kufstein

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wolfurt

L. Hofmann 80' (pen)

I. Jaúregui 40'

G. Koritnik 33'

9/23/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 9Kufstein-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kufstein48%

×Draw23%

Wolfurt29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KufsteinExpected goals in this matchWolfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.36

Kufstein

1.80

Wolfurt

1.36

Kufstein creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 51 away

1.03

creates per match

1.47

1.25

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Kufstein

1.03

Wolfurt

1.47

allows per match

Kufstein

1.25

Wolfurt

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kufstein+0.00on par

Wolfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kufstein ↓

Wolfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kufstein or draw

71%

Kufstein or Wolfurt

77%

Draw or Wolfurt

52%

Winning margin

Kufstein wins by 2+

26%

Wolfurt wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kufstein 1+ goals

83%

Kufstein 2+ goals

54%

Kufstein 3+ goals

27%

Wolfurt 1+ goals

74%

Wolfurt 2+ goals

39%

Wolfurt 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kufstein (draw refunded)

62%

Wolfurt (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kufstein at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Wolfurt away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kufstein attack 1.03 + Wolfurt defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.80

Wolfurt attack 1.47 + Kufstein defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kufstein scores more

48%

level

23%

Wolfurt scores more

29%

Kufstein at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kufstein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

G. Koritnik

40'

I. Jaúregui

61'

J. Marent← N. Kienreich

65'

S. Lauf← E. Xhelili

65'

S. Schlichenmaier← I. Jaúregui

74'

A. Sinabov← Ygor

80'

L. HofmannPenalty

88'

T. Wegscheider← N. Votu

90+1'

N. Dencinger← L. Hofmann

Kufstein

Wolfurt

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hofmann

▼

Xhelili

Manager: T. Luchner

65'▲S. Lauf←▼E. Xhelili

65'▲S. Schlichenmaier←▼I. Jaúregui

74'▲A. Sinabov←▼Ygor

90+1'▲N. Dencinger←▼L. Hofmann

Kufstein substitutes

LaufSchlichenmaierSinabovDencingerPoprzanovicKrimbacher

Manager: J. Baur

61'▲J. Marent←▼N. Kienreich

88'▲T. Wegscheider←▼N. Votu

Wolfurt substitutes

MarentWegscheiderBernekerErathFink

Regionalliga - West: Kufstein 2–1 Wolfurt

Kufstein beat Wolfurt 2-1 in Regionalliga - West on September 23, 2023.

Goals: G. Koritnik (33'), I. Jaúregui (40'), L. Hofmann (80' pen).

The match was played at Kufstein-Arena in Kufstein.

Kufstein vs Wolfurt — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - West: Kufstein 2–1 Wolfurt