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Kufstein vs Imst — Regionalliga - West 2018

Kufstein
Kufstein
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Imst
Imst
E. Prosic 42'
L. Lamp 32'
8/9/2025Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 2Kufstein-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kufstein31%
×Draw24%
Imst45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kufstein
1.31
Imst
1.64

Imst creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kufstein
1.02
Imst
2.02

allows per match

Kufstein
1.25
Imst
1.59

finishing

Kufstein+0.00on par
Imst+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kufstein ↓

Imst →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kufstein or draw
55%
Kufstein or Imst
76%
Draw or Imst
69%

Winning margin

Kufstein wins by 2+
13%
Imst wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kufstein 1+ goals
73%
Kufstein 2+ goals
38%
Kufstein 3+ goals
14%
Imst 1+ goals
81%
Imst 2+ goals
49%
Imst 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kufstein (draw refunded)
40%
Imst (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kufstein at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Imst away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kufstein attack 1.02 + Imst defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Imst attack 2.02 + Kufstein defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kufstein scores more
31%
level
24%
Imst scores more
45%

Imst at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Imst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
L. Lamp
42'
E. Prosic
Kufstein
Imst
M. Holzer
Manager: M. Holzer
J. Scheuer
Manager: J. Scheuer

Match Recap: Kufstein vs Imst

Kufstein and Imst drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - West on August 9, 2025.

Goals: L. Lamp (32'), E. Prosic (42').

The match was played at Kufstein-Arena in Kufstein.