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Kuchl vs Golling — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Kuchl
Kuchl
FT
2 – 0
Golling
Golling
10/21/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 13Kuchl - Andreas Wimmer Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kuchl77%
×Draw14%
Golling10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuchl
2.92
Golling
0.95

Kuchl creates 207% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Kuchl
3.53
Golling
1.50

allows per match

Kuchl
0.40
Golling
2.32

finishing

Kuchl+0.00on par
Golling+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuchl ↓

Golling →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kuchl or draw
90%
Kuchl or Golling
86%
Draw or Golling
23%

Winning margin

Kuchl wins by 2+
57%
Golling wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kuchl 1+ goals
94%
Kuchl 2+ goals
78%
Kuchl 3+ goals
55%
Golling 1+ goals
61%
Golling 2+ goals
25%
Golling 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kuchl (draw refunded)
89%
Golling (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuchl at home — creates 3.53, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Golling away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuchl attack 3.53 + Golling defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.92

Golling attack 1.50 + Kuchl defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Kuchl scores more
77%
level
14%
Golling scores more
10%

Kuchl at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Kuchl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuchl vs Golling

Kuchl beat Golling 2-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Kuchl - Andreas Wimmer Arena in Kuchl.