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Kuchl vs Adnet — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Kuchl
Kuchl
FT
7 – 0
Adnet
Adnet
5/3/2024Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 23Kuchl - Andreas Wimmer Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kuchl78%
×Draw14%
Adnet8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuchl
2.80
Adnet
0.80

Kuchl creates 250% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kuchl
3.53
Adnet
1.21

allows per match

Kuchl
0.40
Adnet
2.08

finishing

Kuchl+0.00on par
Adnet+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuchl ↓

Adnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kuchl or draw
92%
Kuchl or Adnet
86%
Draw or Adnet
22%

Winning margin

Kuchl wins by 2+
58%
Adnet wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kuchl 1+ goals
94%
Kuchl 2+ goals
76%
Kuchl 3+ goals
52%
Adnet 1+ goals
55%
Adnet 2+ goals
19%
Adnet 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kuchl (draw refunded)
91%
Adnet (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuchl at home — creates 3.53, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Adnet away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuchl attack 3.53 + Adnet defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.80

Adnet attack 1.21 + Kuchl defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Kuchl scores more
78%
level
14%
Adnet scores more
8%

Kuchl at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Kuchl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Kuchl 7–0 Adnet

Kuchl beat Adnet 7-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Kuchl - Andreas Wimmer Arena in Kuchl.