Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kuching FA vs Perak — Malaysia Cup 2019

Kuching FA
Kuching FA
FT
2 – 2
Perak
Perak
9/29/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 2Pasir Gudang Corporation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kuching FA53%
×Draw23%
Perak24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuching FA
1.85
Perak
1.18

Kuching FA creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kuching FA
1.20
Perak
1.25

allows per match

Kuching FA
1.10
Perak
2.50

finishing

Kuching FA+0.00on par
Perak+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuching FA ↓

Perak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kuching FA or draw
76%
Kuching FA or Perak
77%
Draw or Perak
47%

Winning margin

Kuching FA wins by 2+
30%
Perak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kuching FA 1+ goals
84%
Kuching FA 2+ goals
55%
Kuching FA 3+ goals
28%
Perak 1+ goals
69%
Perak 2+ goals
33%
Perak 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kuching FA (draw refunded)
69%
Perak (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuching FA at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Perak away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuching FA attack 1.20 + Perak defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Perak attack 1.25 + Kuching FA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kuching FA scores more
53%
level
23%
Perak scores more
24%

Kuching FA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kuching FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kuching FA vs Perak

Kuching FA and Perak drew 2-2 in Malaysia Cup on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Pasir Gudang Corporation Stadium in Pasir Gudang.