Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kubrat vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kubrat
Kubrat
FT
0 – 0
Topoli
Topoli
8/9/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kubrat36%
×Draw25%
Topoli39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubrat
1.42
Topoli
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kubrat
0.74
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Kubrat
2.14
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw
61%
Kubrat or Topoli
75%
Draw or Topoli
64%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+
17%
Topoli wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals
76%
Kubrat 2+ goals
41%
Kubrat 3+ goals
17%
Topoli 1+ goals
78%
Topoli 2+ goals
44%
Topoli 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)
48%
Topoli (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Topoli attack 0.85 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kubrat scores more
36%
level
25%
Topoli scores more
39%

Topoli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Topoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Kubrat 0–0 Topoli

Kubrat and Topoli drew 0-0 in Third League - Northeast on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kubrat.