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Kubrat vs Ludogorets III — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kubrat
Kubrat
CANC
13:00
Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
3/3/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kubrat14%
×Draw20%
Ludogorets III67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubrat
0.82
Ludogorets III
2.09

Ludogorets III creates 155% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kubrat
0.74
Ludogorets III
2.05

allows per match

Kubrat
2.14
Ludogorets III
0.90

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par
Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Ludogorets III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw
33%
Kubrat or Ludogorets III
80%
Draw or Ludogorets III
86%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+
4%
Ludogorets III wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals
56%
Kubrat 2+ goals
20%
Kubrat 3+ goals
5%
Ludogorets III 1+ goals
88%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
62%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)
17%
Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kubrat scores more
14%
level
20%
Ludogorets III scores more
67%

Ludogorets III at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kubrat vs Ludogorets III — Match Preview

Kubrat face Ludogorets III on March 3, 2021 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kubrat host Ludogorets III at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.