Kubrat 2–1 Lokomotiv Ruse: Result & Stats

Kubrat

FT

2 – 1

Lokomotiv Ruse

6/1/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 30Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kubrat43%

×Draw23%

Lokomotiv Ruse34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KubratExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.51

Kubrat

1.73

Lokomotiv Ruse

1.51

Kubrat creates 15% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 52 away

0.74

creates per match

0.87

2.14

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Kubrat

0.74

Lokomotiv Ruse

0.87

allows per match

Kubrat

2.14

Lokomotiv Ruse

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw

66%

Kubrat or Lokomotiv Ruse

77%

Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse

57%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+

23%

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals

82%

Kubrat 2+ goals

52%

Kubrat 3+ goals

25%

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals

78%

Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals

44%

Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)

56%

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kubrat scores more

43%

level

23%

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more

34%

Kubrat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kubrat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff