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Kubrat vs Inter Dobrich — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kubrat
Kubrat
FT
2 – 0
Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
10/18/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 10Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kubrat67%
×Draw16%
Inter Dobrich16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kubrat
2.83
Inter Dobrich
1.35

Kubrat creates 110% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kubrat
0.74
Inter Dobrich
0.57

allows per match

Kubrat
2.14
Inter Dobrich
4.93

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par
Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Inter Dobrich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw
84%
Kubrat or Inter Dobrich
84%
Draw or Inter Dobrich
33%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+
47%
Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals
94%
Kubrat 2+ goals
77%
Kubrat 3+ goals
53%
Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
74%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
39%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)
81%
Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 2.83

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kubrat scores more
67%
level
16%
Inter Dobrich scores more
16%

Kubrat at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kubrat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kubrat vs Inter Dobrich

Kubrat beat Inter Dobrich 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kubrat.